Estimating the Incidence of Conjunctivitis by Comparing the Frequency of Google Search Terms With Clinical Data: Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background Infectious conjunctivitis is contagious and may lead to an outbreak. Prevention systems can help to avoid an outbreak. Objective We aimed to evaluate if Google search data on conjunctivitis and associated terms can be used to estimate the incidence and if the data can provide an estimation for outbreaks. Methods We obtained Google search data over 4 years for the German term for conjunctivitis (“Bindehautentzündung”) and 714 associated terms in 12 selected German cities and Germany as a whole using the Google AdWords Keyword Planner. The search volume from Freiburg was correlated with clinical data from the Freiburg emergency practice (Eye Center University of Freiburg). Results The search volume for the German term for conjunctivitis in Germany as a whole and in the 12 German cities showed a highly uniform seasonal pattern. Cross-correlation between the temporal search frequencies in Germany as a whole and the 12 selected cities was high without any lag. Cross-correlation of the search volume in Freiburg with the frequency of conjunctivitis (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems [ICD] code group “H10.-”) from the centralized ophthalmologic emergency practice in Freiburg revealed a considerable temporal association, with the emergency practice lagging behind the frequency. Additionally, Pearson correlation between the count of patients per month and the count of searches per month in Freiburg was statistically significant (P=.04). Conclusions We observed a close correlation between the Google search volume for the signs and symptoms of conjunctivitis and the frequency of patients with a congruent diagnosis in the Freiburg region. Regional deviations from the nationwide average search volume may therefore indicate a regional outbreak of infectious conjunctivitis.