Comorbidity Differences by Trajectory Groups as a Reference for Identifying Patients at Risk for Late Mortality in Childhood Cancer Survivors: Longitudinal National Cohort Study

Abstract

Background Childhood cancer has a high long-term morbidity and mortality rate. Five years after the initial cancer diagnosis, approximately two-thirds of childhood cancer survivors experience at least one late complication, with one-quarter experiencing severe, life-threatening complications. Chronic health conditions can impact survivors’ life planning and daily activities, reducing their health-related quality of life. Comprehensive and longitudinal data are required for investigations of national claims data. Objective This study aimed to address clinical and health policy interventions and improved survival rates. A comprehensive categorization of the long-term morbidities associated with childhood cancer survivorship is required. We analyzed the trajectory groups associated with long-term mortality among childhood cancer survivors. Methods We collected data from a nationwide claims database of the entire Korean population. Between 2003 and 2007, patients diagnosed with and treated for cancer before the age of 20 years were included. With 8119 patients who survived >10 years, 3 trajectory groups were classified according to yearly changes in the number of diagnoses (the lowest in group 1 and the highest in group 3). Results The patterns of most comorbidities and survival rates differed significantly between the trajectory groups. Group 3 had a higher rate of mental and behavioral disorders, neoplasms, and blood organ diseases than the other two groups. Furthermore, there was a difference in the number of diagnoses by trajectory groups over the entire decade, and the disparity increased as the survival period increased. If a patient received more than four diagnoses, especially after the fourth year, the patient was likely to be assigned to group 3, which had the worst prognosis. Group 1 had the highest overall survival rate, and group 3 had the lowest (P<.001). Group 3 had the highest hazard ratio of 4.37 (95% CI 2.57-7.42; P<.001) in a multivariate analysis of late mortality. Conclusions Our findings show that the pattern of comorbidities differed significantly among trajectory groups for late death, which could help physicians identify childhood cancer survivors at risk for late mortality. Patients with neoplasms, blood organ diseases, or mental and behavioral disorders should be identified as having an increased risk of late mortality. Furthermore, vigilance and prompt action are essential to mitigate the potential consequences of a child cancer survivor receiving four or more diagnoses within a year.