Forecast of fuel and coal consumption in Ukraine until 2040 by a complex method of forecasting energy consumption

Abstract

The article presents a projection of Ukraine economy development up to 2040 according to the baseline scenario, taking into account the changes that have occurred during 2017-2020. Using the projection, a preliminary estimate of the forecasted demand for electricity at the national level (TOP-DOWN method) for 2040 was developed, which taking into account a new national thermal power production structure including structure of coal-fired power plants according to the NPC “Ukrenergo” 2020 Adequacy Report. Based on these data, the forecast for fuel demand in the country including coal for 2040 is developed, which takes into account consolidated economic activities, changes in household sector, the potential of energy savings from structural changes and technological changes. Also, the forecast of fuel and coal use for transformation in industrial technological processes and in power plants are calculated. The study shows that fuel consumption in the country is significantly influenced by two factors: the structure of the economy and the structure of generating capacity for electricity and heat. Reducing the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation leads to almost constant consumption. The structural potential for energy savings is almost 50% of the total. Keywords: forecast, demand, fuel, coal, structure of economy, technological potential of energy saving, method