International Intellectual Emigration and Innovative Development of The Country: Modeling of Relationships

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess and model the relationship between intellectual emigration and innovative development of the country. The relevance of the research subject is confirmed by sociological data, according to which there are currently more than 5 million Ukrainians in Europe. Moreover, since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, mainly highly qualified and highly educated Ukrainians emigrated. The scientific novelty consists in modeling the relationship between the scale of intellectual emigration and individual components of the innovative development of the country. In the research process, the following scientific methods have been used: analysis and synthesis (when analyzing the latest research and scientific publications in the field of intellectual emigration), structural and dynamic analysis (to characterize the tendency of intellectual emigration from Ukraine), correlation analysis and economic-mathematical modeling (to evaluate relationships between intellectual emigration and innovative development of the country). To assess the level of intellectual emigration from Ukraine, the E3: Human Flight and Brain Drain Indicator in the Fragile States Index (hereinafter — the E3 indicator), which is used in the calculations of the State Fragility Index, is utilized. The analysis of the dynamics of the values of the E3 indicator for Ukraine demonstrates its steady growth over the past five years. Therefore, the values of the intellectual emigration indicator make it possible to position Ukraine as a donor country, i.e. one being a donor of intellectual migrants for other countries. The obtained values of Pearson’s pairwise correlation coefficients demonstrate a close inverse relationship between intellectual emigration and innovative development of the country. The negative impact of the departure of highly qualified and highly educated persons abroad for employment on the innovative capacity of the country of origin has been proven. In order to detail the relationship between intellectual emigration and the innovative development of the country, an economic-mathematical model has been developed, which proves that as the values of the sub-indices «Human capital and research» and «Business sophistication» in the Global Innovation Index decrease, the value of the E3 indicator increases.