A Conflict between Indexical Credal Transparency and Relevance Confirmation

Abstract

According to the probabilistic relevance account of confirmation, E confirms H relative to background knowledge K just in case P(H/K&E)>P(H/K). This requires an inequality between the rational degree of belief in H determined relative to two bodies of total knowledge that are such that one (K&E) includes the other (K) as a proper part. In this article, I argue that it is quite plausible that there are no two possible bodies of total knowledge for ideally rational agents meeting this requirement. Hence, the positive relevance account may have to be rejected.