Insect pest complexes associated with wheat and canola crops in the Canadian Prairies Ecozone: pest risk in response to variable climates using bioclimatic models

Abstract

Abstract Wheat, Triticum aestivum Linnaeus (Poaceae), and canola, Brassica napus Linnaeus (Brassicaceae), yield is at risk from insects, weeds, and pathogens. Insects must adapt to both seasonal and annual weather patterns and are known to respond to climate with changes in their distribution and relative abundance. Subsequently, risk to crop production also changes. Models that account for multiple species can serve to assess risk and address those risks proactively by monitoring, detecting, and managing insect pests. Bioclimatic models, developed individually for nine insect pests, were used to create a model to estimate risk to canola and wheat crops associated with the activity of multiple pest species. Once developed, the multiple-species model was used to analyse how crop risk responds to variation in temperature and precipitation across the prairies. For this analysis, we compared insect response and subsequent risk (a measure of the number of co-occurring pest species) to canola and wheat in current climate conditions and six incremental scenarios (warmer, cooler, drier, wetter, cooler and wetter, and warmer and drier). Results of the multiple-species model predict how pest complexes respond to climate conditions. The model will help increase risk awareness associated with insect pests.