Would future climate warming cause zoonotic diseases to spread over long distances?

Author:

Bu Fan123,Yue Xiuxian4,Sun Shanshan123,Jin Yongling123,Li Linlin123,Li Xin123,Zhang Rong123,Shang Zhenghaoni123,Yan Haiwen123,Zhang Haoting123,Yuan Shuai123,Wu Xiaodong123,Fu Heping123

Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Grassland Resources, Ministry of Education, Hohhot, China

2. Key Laboratory of Grassland Rodent Ecology and Pest Controlled, Inner Mongolia, Hohhot, China

3. College of Grassland Resources and Environment, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China

4. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Forestry and Grassland Monitoring Planning Institute, Hohhot, China

Abstract

Dipus sagitta is a major rodent found in arid environments and desert areas. They feed on plant seeds, young branches and some small insects, and have hibernating habits. Peak Dipus sagitta numbers impact the construction of the plant community in the environment, but also have a human impact as these rodents carry a variety of parasitic fleas capable of spreading serious diseases to humans. Based on 216 present distribution records of Dipus sagitta and seven environmental variables, this article simulates the potential distribution of Dipus sagitta during the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, the present and the future (2070s, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). This study also analyzes the geographic changes of the population distribution and evaluates the importance of climate factors by integrating contribution rate, replacement importance value and the jackknife test using the MaxEnt model. In this study, we opted to assess the predictive capabilities of our model using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) metrics. The findings indicate that the AUC value exceeds 0.9 and the AUC ratio is greater than 1, indicating superior predictive performance by the model. The results showed that the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of the three-toed jerboa were precipitation in the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality (standard deviation), and mean annual temperature. Under the two warming scenarios of the mid-Holocene and the future, there were differences in the changes in the distribution area of the three-toed jerboa. During the mid-Holocene, the suitable distribution area of the three-toed jerboa expanded, with a 93.91% increase in the rate of change compared to the Last Glacial Maximum. The size of the three-toed jerboa’s habitat decreases under both future climate scenarios. Compared to the current period, under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the change rate is −2.96%, and under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the change rate is −7.41%. This indicates a trend of contraction in the south and expansion in the north. It is important to assess changes in the geographic population of Dipus sagitta due to climate change to formulate population control strategies of these harmful rodents and to prevent and control the long-distance transmission of zoonotic diseases.

Funder

Basic scientific research business expenses of universities directly under Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Chinese Academy of Sciences

Major Science and Technology Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Pest Diversity Survey in the Western section of Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in North China

Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia

Science and Technology Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Program for Young Talents of Science and Technology in Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Grassland Ecological protection and Restoration Treatment Subsidy, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Postgraduate Research Innovation Funding Project

Publisher

PeerJ

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