Methods of risk assessment in forecasting the consequences of accidents at pipeline transport facilities

Abstract

The choice of risk assessment procedure is one of the essential stages of efficient structuring of processes on prevention, localization and elimination of the consequences of accidents at main pipeline transport facilities. The authors analyzed themed publications and regulatory documents, governing procedures of risk assessment and forecasting of the consequences of possible accidents, and defined main problems in this area. Procedure for the risk assessment of accidents at main pipeline facilities was developed, the basis of which is the expert evaluation method. The procedure includes the determination of the main criteria for the assessment the probability of accident initiation and development and the evaluation of the severity of its consequences, an expert evaluation of criteria significance, their classification, and creation of a rating for hazardous pipeline sections. The application of the procedure application allows to specify the list of facilities that require high priority forecasting of accidents consequences, thus to optimize the distribution of resources and the overall increase of efficiency in planning while defining forces and special technical devices, necessary for containment and rectification of emergencies. Expert evaluation method application allows considering the specifics of certain enterprises, their technical and technological peculiarities, thereby increasing forecasting accuracy.