Lies, Damned Lies and ‘Problem Gambling’ Prevalence Rates: The Example of Victoria, Australia

Abstract

This paper takes up the challenge to consider whether it is possible reasonably to overcome a number of sobering methodological deficiencies in published prevalence-rate estimates of ‘problem gambling’. The prompt to do so was the 2006 claim by the Victorian Government to have halved ‘problem gambling’ in the State. The paper shows the claim to be unscientific. It reinforces this view by demonstrating, using evidence and argument from the Productivity Commission, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and statistical/epidemiological sources, that extant sample survey techniques used to estimate prevalence rates are seriously flawed.