Age Conditional Probability of Ocular and Ocular Adnexal Malignancies

Abstract

<b><i>Aim:</i></b> The aim of this study was to discuss and illustrate the role age-conditional probability has in communicating risk of developing ocular and ocular adnexal malignancies. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Cross-sectional incidence for retinoblastoma, uveal melanoma, conjunctival melanoma, and lacrimal gland carcinomas from 2000 to 2017 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Incidence rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 United States population. Age-adjusted incidence was converted to age-interval and cumulative risks. Outcomes were examined in 20-year intervals and cumulatively for adult cancers and yearly for retinoblastoma. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The risk of each malignancy displayed age-dependent variation. For adult malignancies, men were at higher risk at most age intervals. Uveal melanoma had the greatest cumulative lifetime risk. The probability of developing retinoblastoma declines precipitously after age 3 years. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Age-conditional probability of developing cancer is a conceptually friendly means of understanding and communicating risk. It is particularly useful in comparing the risks of uncommon or rare cancers, such as those found in and around the eye. The assessment of risk in terms of age-conditional probability is a versatile and an underutilized pedagogical tool.