Modeling the Burden of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in the USA in 2013

Abstract

Objectives: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a pathological condition characterized by an abnormal, localized dilatation of the lower part of the aorta. Due to a lack of data on the natural history of AAA and risk of death from other cardiovascular diseases attributable to AAA, the true number of AAA-attributable deaths may be higher than currently estimated. This study aims to produce more realistic estimates of the burden of AAA. Methods: A disease-modeling software, DisMod II, was used to assess the AAA burden via a multistate life table. Inputs included population, all-cause mortality, size- and sex-specific AAA prevalence, and relative risk of death estimates for persons with AAA compared with persons without AAA. Results: There were 2,347,339 prevalent cases of AAA in the USA in 2013 (95% CI: 2,131,964-2,524,116), resulting in 41,371 deaths attributable to AAA (95% CI: 34,090-49,234). Females constituted 21.1% of prevalent cases and 45.2% of deaths, compared with males constituting 78.9% of prevalent cases and 54.8% of deaths. Conclusions: This work shows that the burden of mortality attributable to AAA is more than twice the current estimates from the American Heart Association. Females account for a disproportionately high percentage of deaths despite constituting a low percentage of prevalent cases.