Economic impact of ACES trends on the automotive value chain: a forecast exploratory study of the Chinese automotive industry in 2030

Abstract

AbstractIn the context of green transportation, the automotive industry is undergoing a revolution in autonomous, connected, electric, and shared (ACES) vehicles. ACES vehicles have a relatively short history and there is limited relevant market data available. Therefore, quantitative research on the economic impact of ACES trends remains a new area of exploration. The purpose of the paper is to explore the economic impact of ACES trends on the automotive value chain, with a specific focus on the production and aftermarket segments. In the paper, a detailed quantitative analysis of the installation scale and the market size of Chinese automotive production as well as the income changes of Chinese automotive aftermarket in 2030 is conducted. The findings show that the new markets for power batteries, electric powertrains, sensors, in-vehicle software and chips are created, thereby delivering more value to the business. While the ACES trends are expected to decrease the average aftermarket income per vehicle, the growth of the vehicle stock suggests significant potential for the development of the automotive aftermarket in 2030. Our research contributes by offering a business perspective on the impact of ACES trends. The quantitative insights presented are timely and crucial for all the stakeholders along the value chain, enabling them to adapt and thrive in the dynamic automotive landscape and align their strategies with the transformative ACES trends.