To live more than 100 years: factors that are associated with the survival of centenarians. A model for Healthy Aging: Moscow centenarians

Abstract

Aim. To evaluate the survival rates of subjects aged 95 and over after a follow-up period of 36-months and estimate predictive factors for mortality risk.Materials and methods. 82 centenarians were included in a prospective cohort study. At the first visit, social-demographic, functional, emotional, and cognitive status were evaluated. During the next visit, instrumental and laboratory tests were done, including echo-cardiograph, ultra-sound of the carotid and femoral arteries, and measurements of the arterial stiffness (pulse wave velocity and index augmentation). After the 36 months, the patients who died were compared with the rest.Results. 44 deaths (63,8%) were recorded during the follow-up period. The independent risk factors for mortality were anemia, low level of functional and cognitive status. The heart's structural and functional changes (ejection fraction below 60% and end-diastolic size of the right ventricular above 2,7 cm) were independently associated with long-term mortality. Besides, independence and functional nutritional status are associated with a good prognosis.Conclusion. In the older old group (95 years and above), low functional, cognitive, and nutritional status are associated with poor prognosis.