Childhood risk and protective factors for early desisters, late desisters and life-course persistent offenders

Abstract

The aim of this article is to investigate the extent to which childhood risk and protective factors predict later persistence or desistance in criminal careers, as it has been argued that childhood factors are not predictive.  In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 56.  This article investigates age 8-10 risk and protective factors for 37 life-course-persistent offenders (first offense up to age 20, last offense at age 40 or later), 38 late desisters (first offense up to age 20, last offense at age 21-39), 50 early desisters (first and last offenses up to age 20), 41 late onset offenders (first offense at age 21 or later), and 227 nonoffenders.  18 males were excluded from the analysis because they were not at risk of a recorded conviction from age 40 onwards (because of death or emigration).  The results showed that several childhood factors predicted persistence compared with desistance.  Individual and school risk factors (e.g. low popularity and low school attainment) were the most important predictors of whether an offender up to age 20 persisted after this age or desisted.  Family protective factors (e.g. good child-rearing and high parental interest in education) were most important in protecting offenders from becoming life-course-persistent offenders and encouraging desistance before age 40.