Predicting preterm birth based on vaginal microbiota assessment by real-time PCR in the first trimester

Abstract

Detecting high risk of preterm birth (PB) early makes its prevention possible. The aim of the work was to develop a mathematical predictive model for assessing the risk of preterm birth based on a quantitative analysis of the vaginal microbiota in the first trimester of pregnancy. The study included 199 pregnant women, i.e. 41 pregnancies that ended in preterm birth, and 158 — in term birth. Vaginal microbiota was analyzed in all patients in the 1st trimester of pregnancy by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). The method of dicriminant analysis was used to develop a predictive model. A method for predicting PB was developed with the calculation of the PRIMA prognostic index (Premature Birth. Index Of Microbiological Analysis). If the value of PRIMA > 0 – the risk of premature birth is low, if PRIMA < 0 – the risk is high. The sensitivity and specificity of the method are respectively 70.7% and 79.75%, the effectiveness is 77.89%. Evaluation of vaginal microbiota in the 1st trimester makes it possible to identify a high-risk group of PB and perform timely preventive measures.