Actively surging West Antarctic ice streams and their response characteristics

Abstract

Ice Streams B, D and E, West Antarctica, all show a longitudinal pattern of ice thickness change that is consistent with ongoing surge behavior modeled for glaciers. The measured pattern is not consistent with model response of any other scenario such as accumulation-rate change or changes on the ice shelf. Inland migration of the ice-stream onset is a requirement of this behavior pattern. If such a surge is presently taking place, the remaining lifetime of the West Antarctic ice sheet is 1200–6000 years. A complete surge period lasting 50 000–120 000 years is hypothesized, with a relatively brief surge phase (lasting 16000–21 000 years) required to completely remove the West Antarctic ice sheet from its maximum extent. Applying classic glacier response theory demonstrates that the diffusive component of response is much faster for ice streams than for glaciers, making the identification of either kinematic waves or localized responses on ice streams unlikely.