The Climate in the European Union and the Enlarged European Region is a Determinant of the COVID-19 Case Fatality Ratio

Abstract

Climate could influence the COVID-19 pandemic, but while no evidence has been advanced on the influence of colder climates, some studies have provided data to support a possible heat-related protective factor. The objective is to verify whether areas with a Cold Temperate Climate (TC) have a higher Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 than areas with a Cold Climate (CC) or with a Mediterranean Climate (MC) in the European Union and the Enlarged European Region. Countries or regions were subdivided into 3 groups according to the Köppen climate classification system: TC (Cfa, Cfb and Cfc in the Köppen system); MC (Csa, Csb); CC (D and E in the Köppen system). The total number of cases and the total number of deaths were detected on 13 August 2020 on the COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center-the CFR was thus calculated by area. Living in TC areas is strongly associated with risk of a high Case Fatality Ratio for COVID-19, OR for MC =0.42, IC 95% 0.41-0.43; OR for CC=0.33, IC 95% 0.33-0.35. The results are confirmed in the EU, OR per MC=0.85, CI 95% 0.84-0.87; OR per CC=0.63, IC 95% 0.61-0.65.The study found that the IC in a humid temperate climate is associated with higher CFR with respect to the coldest and warmest temperate climates in Europe. This does not appear to be the only determinant of the pandemic.