Clustering of Climate Change Impacts on Ocean Waves in the Northwest Atlantic

Abstract

AbstractThe provision of reliable results from numerical wave models implemented over vast ocean areas can be considered as a time-consuming process. In this regard, the estimation of areas with maximum similarity in wave climate spatial areas and the determination of associated representative point locations for these areas can play an important role in climate research and in engineering applications. In order to deal with this issue, we apply a state-of-the-art clustering methodology, Geo-SOM, to determine geographical areas with similar wave regimes, in terms of mean wave direction (MWD), mean wave period (T0), as well as significant wave height (Hs). Although this method has many strengths, a weakness is related to detection and accounting of the most extreme and rare events. To resolve this deficiency, an initial pre-processing method (called PG-Geo-SOM) is applied. To evaluate the performance of this method, extreme wave parameters, including Hs and T0, are calculated. We simulate the present climate, represented as 1979 to 2017, compared to the future climate, 2060-2098, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) future scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 in the Northwest Atlantic. In this approach, the wave parameter data are divided into distinct groups, or clusters, motivated by their geographical positions. For each cluster, the centroid spatial point and the time series of data are extracted, for Hs, MWD, and T0. Extreme values are estimated for 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods, using Gumbel, exponential, and Weibull stochastic models, for both present and future climates. Results show that for parameter T0, the impact of climate change for the study area is a decreasing trend, while for Hs, in coastal and shelf areas up to about 1000 km from the coastline, increasing trends are estimated, and in open ocean areas, far from the coast, decreasing trends are obtained.