Extratropical Ocean Warming and Winter Arctic Sea Ice Cover since the 1990s

Abstract

Abstract Despite the fact that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has reached a more neutral state and a global-warming hiatus has occurred in winter since the late 1990s, the Arctic sea ice cover (ASIC) still shows a pronounced decrease. This study reveals a close connection (R = 0.5) between the extratropical sea surface temperature (ET-SST) and ASIC in winter from 1994 to 2013. In response to one positive (negative) unit of deviation in the ET-SST pattern, the ASIC decreases (increases) in the Barents–Kara Seas and Hudson Bay (the Baffin Bay and Bering Sea) by 100–400 km2. This relationship might be maintained because of the impact of warming extratropical oceans on the polar vortex. Positive SST anomalies in the midlatitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic (around 40°N) strengthen the equatorward planetary wave propagation, whereas negative SST anomalies in the high latitudes weaken the upward planetary wave propagation from the lower troposphere to the stratosphere. The former indicates a strengthening of the poleward meridional eddy momentum flux, and the latter implies a weakening of the poleward eddy heat flux, which favors an intensified upper-level polar night jet and a colder polar vortex, implying a stronger-than-normal polar vortex. Consequently, an anomalous cyclone emerges over the eastern Arctic, limiting or encouraging the ASIC by modulating the mean meridional heat flux. A possible reason for the long-term changes in the relationship between the ET-SST and ASIC is also discussed.