Variations in the Teleconnection of ENSO and Summer Rainfall in Northern China: A Role of the Indian Summer Monsoon*

Abstract

Abstract Observational studies have created a dilemma on how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have affected interannual variations of summer rainfall in northern China; some suggested a consistent effect while others showed a complete lack of effect. This dilemma is resolved in this study, which shows that ENSO has affected the summer rainfall in northern China and the effect has varied at multidecadal scales. The question of how the ENSO teleconnection with northern China rainfall variation was established is addressed, and an answer pointing to the Indian summer monsoon as a “facilitator” connecting ENSO and northern China rainfall variation is examined. The Indian monsoon circulation interacted with the regional circulations in northern China in some epochs and such interaction was interrupted in other epochs. When the interaction was active, the Indian monsoon variations originating from ENSO, during El Niño or La Niña, was extended to affect the rainfall variation in northern China, creating a teleconnection of ENSO with northern China rainfall. When the interaction weakened or was inactive, the ENSO effect languished. Additional analyses were done to address the related question of why the interactions have alternated. The alternation was suggested to result from variations of the large-scale circulation in the Eurasian continent. The circulation anomalies showed lowering (rising) 500-hPa geopotential height centered at Mongolia and western China in some epochs, enhancing cyclonic (anticyclonic) rotation in mid- and low-level winds and creating (disrupting) a moisture convoy from the Indian monsoon region to northern China and synergetic convergence/divergence anomalies in the monsoon region and in northern China. Results of this study contribute to the understanding of interannual and multidecadal variations of the summer rainfall in the semiarid region of northern China.