The Influence of Changes in Cloud Cover on Recent Surface Temperature Trends in the Arctic

Abstract

Abstract A method is presented to assess the influence of changes in Arctic cloud cover on the surface temperature trend, allowing for a more robust diagnosis of causes for surface warming or cooling. Seasonal trends in satellite-derived Arctic surface temperature under clear-, cloudy-, and all-sky conditions are examined for the period 1982–2004. The satellite-derived trends are in good agreement with trends in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis product and surface-based weather station measurements in the Arctic. Surface temperature trends under clear and cloudy conditions have patterns similar to the all-sky trends, though the magnitude of the trends under cloudy conditions is smaller than those under clear-sky conditions, illustrating the negative feedback of clouds on the surface temperature trends. The all-sky surface temperature trend is divided into two parts: the first part is a linear combination of the surface temperature trends under clear and cloudy conditions; the second part is caused by changes in cloud cover as a function of the clear–cloudy surface temperature difference. The relative importance of these two components is different in the four seasons, with the first part more important in spring, summer, and autumn, but with both parts being equally important in winter. The contribution of biases in satellite retrievals is also evaluated.