Seamless multi-model postprocessing for air temperature forecasts in complex topography

Abstract

AbstractStatistical postprocessing is applied in operational forecasting to correct systematic errors of numerical weather prediction models (NWP) and to automatically produce calibrated local forecasts for end-users. Postprocessing is particularly relevant in complex terrain, where even state-of-the-art high-resolution NWP systems cannot resolve many of the small-scale processes shaping local weather conditions. In addition, statistical postprocessing can also be used to combine forecasts from multiple NWP systems. Here we assess an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) approach to produce seamless temperature forecasts based on a combination of short-term ensemble forecasts from a convection-permitting limited-area ensemble and a medium-range global ensemble forecasting model. We quantify the benefit of this approach compared to only postprocessing the high-resolution NWP. The multi-model EMOS approach (’Mixed EMOS’) is able to improve forecasts by 30% with respect to direct model output from the high-resolution NWP. A detailed evaluation of Mixed EMOS reveals that it outperforms either one of the single-model EMOS versions by 8-12%. Temperature forecasts at valley locations profit in particular from the model combination. All forecast variants perform worst in winter (DJF), however calibration and model combination improves forecast quality substantially. In addition to increasing skill as compared to single model postprocessing, it also enables to seamlessly combine multiple forecast sources with different time horizons (and horizontal resolutions) and thereby consolidates short-term to medium-range forecasting time horizons in one product without any user-relevant discontinuity.