Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Response to External Forcing during the Past Two Millennia

Abstract

Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a cornerstone for decadal prediction and profoundly influences regional and global climate variability, yet its fundamental drivers remain an issue for debate. Studies suggest that external forcing may have affected AMV during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400–1860). However, the detailed mechanism remains elusive, and the AMV’s centennial to millennial variations over the past 2000 years have not yet been explored. We first show that proxy-data reconstructions and paleo-data assimilations suggest a significant 60-yr AMV during AD 1250–1860 but not during AD 1–1249. We then conducted a suite of experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to unravel the causes of the changing AMV property. The simulation results under all external forcings match the reconstructions reasonably well. We find that the significant 60-yr AMV during 1250–1860 arises predominantly from the volcano forcing variability. During the period 1–1249, the average volcanic eruption intensity is about half of the 1250–1860 intensity, and a 20–40-yr internal variability dominates the AMV. The volcanic radiative forcing during 1250–1860 amplifies AMV and shifts the internal variability peak from 20–40 years to 60 years. The volcano forcing prolongs AMV periodicity by sustaining Arctic cooling, delaying subpolar sea ice melting and atmospheric feedback to reduce surface evaporation. These slow-response processes over the subpolar North Atlantic results in a persisting reduction of sea surface salinity, weakening the Atlantic overturning circulation, and warm water transport from the subtropical North Atlantic. The results reveal the cause of the nonstationary AMV over the past two millennia and shed light on the AMV’s response to external forcing. Significance Statement AMV plays an important role in the regional and global climate variability. The purpose of this study is to better understand the secular change of AMV during the past 2000 years and its response to the external forcing. Proxy data and model simulation consistently show a significant 60-yr AMV during AD 1250–1860 that is absent during AD 1–1249. Active volcanic eruptions during 1250–1860 amplify the AMV and shift its intrinsic 20–40-yr to a prominent 60-yr variance peak. Volcanoes prolong AMV periodicity by sustaining Arctic cooling, delaying subpolar sea ice melting, reducing evaporation, and increasing surface salinity. These results help us better understand nonstationary AMV and highlight the role of external forcing over the past two millennia.