An Ice-Phase Microphysics Forward Model and Preliminary Results of Polarimetric Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract

In this study, an ice-phase microphysics forward model has been developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model three-dimensional variational data assimilation (WRF 3D-Var) system. Radar forward operators for reflectivity and the polarimetric variable, specific differential phase ( KDP), have been built into the ice-phase WRF 3D-Var package to allow modifications in liquid (cloud water and rain) and solid water (cloud ice and snow) fields through data assimilation. Experiments have been conducted to assimilate reflectivity and radial velocity observations collected by the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Hytop, Alabama, for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 15 March 2008. Numerical results have been examined to assess the impact of the WSR-88D data using the ice-phase WRF 3D-Var radar data assimilation package. The main goals are to first demonstrate radar data assimilation with an ice-phase microphysics forward model and second to improve understanding on how to enhance the utilization of radar data in numerical weather prediction. Results showed that the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity data using the ice-phase system provided significant improvement especially in the mid- to upper troposphere. The improved initial conditions led to apparent improvement in the short-term precipitation forecast of the MCS. An additional experiment has been conducted to explore the assimilation of KDP data collected by the Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Results showed that KDP data have been successfully assimilated using the ice-phase 3D-Var package. A positive impact of the KDP data has been found on rainwater in the lower troposphere and snow in the mid- to upper troposphere.