Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) Forecasts

Abstract

Abstract Ensemble tropical rainfall potential (eTRaP) has been developed to improve short-range forecasts of heavy rainfall in tropical cyclones. Evolving from the tropical rainfall potential (TRaP), a 24-h rain forecast based on estimated rain rates from microwave sensors aboard polar-orbiting satellites, eTRaP combines all single-pass TRaPs generated within ±3 h of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC to form a simple ensemble. This approach addresses uncertainties in satellite-derived rain rates and spatial rain structures by using estimates from different sensors observing the cyclone at different times. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are produced from the ensemble mean field using a probability matching approach to recalibrate the rain-rate distribution against the ensemble members (e.g., input TRaP forecasts) themselves. ETRaPs also provide probabilistic forecasts of heavy rain, which are potentially of enormous benefit to decision makers. Verification of eTRaP forecasts for 16 Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the United States between 2004 and 2008 shows that the eTRaP rain amounts are more accurate than single-sensor TRaPs. The probabilistic forecasts have useful skill, but the probabilities should be interpreted within a spatial context. A novel concept of a “radius of uncertainty” compensates for the influence of location error in the probability forecasts. The eTRaPs are produced in near–real time for all named tropical storms and cyclones around the globe. They can be viewed online (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html) and are available in digital form to users.