Distribution-Free Approach to the Design and Analysis of Randomized Stroke Trials With the Modified Rankin Scale

Abstract

Background: Many methods have been suggested for analyzing the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). However, there lacks a unified approach to analysis and sample size determination that properly uses the ordinal nature of the data. We propose a simple method for CI estimation and corresponding sample size determination. Methods: We quantify treatment effect by the win probability (WinP) that a randomly selected patient in the treatment group has an equal or a better mRS score than a patient in the control group. Thus, a win probability of 0.5 means no effect, likened to a draw in competitive sports. We estimate the win probability and its SE based on the ranks of mRS scores, where tied scores are handled by average ranks. Corresponding methods for hypothesis testing, CI estimation, and sample size determination are derived. The methods are evaluated with a simulation study based on real data from 10 randomized stroke trials that used mRS as the outcome measure. Results: Simulation results demonstrated that the methods performed very well in terms of CI coverage, tail errors, and assurance to achieving the prespecified precision. Because the methods are very simple, we implemented them in an Excel spreadsheet, requiring only user inputs on frequencies of mRS scores in 2 comparison groups. Conclusions: Sound statistical methods are important for the success of randomized stroke trials. The proposed methods and associated spreadsheet should prove useful for stroke researchers in the planning and analysis of randomized trials. Meta-analysis has also been made easy for trials with ordinal scores.