Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Clinical Suspicion, Age, Total Cholesterol, and Triglyceride

Abstract

Our results, based on the definition of coronary heart disease by cinearteriography, show that definite relationships exist among incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), age, total cholesterol (TC), and total triglycerides, with less definite ones between free cholesterol, and phospholipids for a specific group of 450 male patients referred to the Cleveland Clinic because of suspected coronary heart disease. Equations and graphs of the association of incidence of CHD with these conditions are presented. The relationships were strong enough to be of aid in discriminating CHD from normal; the most useful being age, TC, and TG. Incidence determinations were presented in terms of total incidence and incidence associated with the variable itself. Coronary angiography demonstrated 350 CHD and 100 normals or a ratio of 3.5 to 1. This ratio is a reflection of the high accuracy with which physicians suspect CHD. Age and TC were good discriminators in these patients suspected of CHD. An improved relationship and better discrimination was obtained by relating incidence simultaneously to age, TC, and TG. The probability of having CHD is the total incidence corresponding to the patient's age, TC, and TG. The probability level of 0.90 gave 95% assurance of a correct prediction for the physician-selected group of patients. Twenty-nine per cent of them had probabilities above 0.90.