On the Coherence between Dynamics of the World Fuel Consumption and Global Temperature Anomaly

Abstract

Analysis of the long-term dynamics of World Fuel Consumption (WFC) and the Global Temperature anomaly (dT) for the last 140 years (1961–2000) shows that unlike the monotonously and exponentially increasing WFC, the dynamics of global dT against the background of a linear, age-long trend, undergo quasi-cyclic fluctuations with about 60 a year period. No true linear correlation has taken place between the dT and WFC dynamics in the last century. Spectral analysis of reconstructed temperature for the last 1420 years and instrumentally measured for the last 140 years global dT shows that dominant period for its variations for the last 1000 years lies in the 5060 years interval. Modelling of roughly 60–years cyclic dT changes suggest that the observed rise of dT will flatten in the next 5–10 years, and that we might expect a lowering of dT by nearly 1–0.15°C to the end of the 2020s.