Analysis of mortality from the coronavirus infection in Russia

Abstract

The coronavirus epidemic has had a significant impact on various aspects of socioeconomic relations in the Russian Federation. In the field of demography, the negative impact of the epidemic was twofold: the decline in fertility was accompanied by an increase in mortality. However, the real picture of mortality from COVID-19 is very difficult to draw. Different sources of 1information contain different numbers. The purpose of the study, based on a comparative analysis, is to determine the total mortality rate from coronavirus infection in Russia in 2020.To do this, it is necessary to compare the available data for individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as compare them with data from other countries similar to Russia in terms of the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. As a result of a comparative analysis of regional data, as well as a comparison of Russian mortality rates with those of the United States and England, the article concludes that: data on mortality associated with COVID-19 differ significantly in different constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which at least indicates about significant and difficult to explain differences in the methodology used; the largest share of deaths associated with COVID-19 in excess mortality in December 2020 falls on Moscow, where it reaches 98.4%; mortality data in Moscow are close to similar data in the United States for December 2020; extrapolation of Moscow data for the whole of Russia and for the entire period of the epidemic makes it possible to estimate the total mortality associated with coronavirus infection in the Russian Federation, at the end of2020, at 337 thousand people, which is more than 6 times morethan according to the data of the Operational Headquarters.