Enterprise risk arising from legacy production systems: a probabilistic perspective

Abstract

The model of estimation of effective minimization of strategic risks arising at modernization of the software of legacy production systems is presented. It is shown that incompatible hypotheses of strategic risks of the enterprise in the digital economy form a complete group of pairwise incompatible independent events, and their probabilities are found by mathematical methods of processing an inversely symmetric matrix, made by experts in pairwise comparison on a 5-point scale of relative importance errors of calculations of the constructed matrix (no more than 15 %). For these matrices, solutions of characteristic equations are found to determine the maximum values of the eigenvalues of matrices, which appear in the assessment of the adequacy of composite expert matrices together with the corresponding orders of matrices. To substantiate the statistical measurement under the condition of quantitative or qualitative assessment of the risk of occurrence of events, the a priori value of the probabilities of occurrence of risk in the occurrence of events is taken. The full probability formula is the formula for the probability of occurrence of an event of effective minimization of strategic risks. It is shown that to determine the a priori values of conditional probabilities of hypotheses of effective minimization of strategic risks of the enterprise it is necessary to make statistically significant sections of these hypotheses at selected enterprises for several periods, which may be subject to statistical distribution laws. Thus, the presented model for quantitative measurement, comprehensive analysis of the level of software modernization of legacy production systems of the enterprise is the initial theoretical basis for improving the system of strategic management of the enterprise in terms of digitalization.