Risk and Opportunity Assessment Under Fuzzy Constraints

Abstract

Problem context. It is necessary to develop methods for analyzing risks and opportunities in economic systems under the assumption that normative criteria are arbitrarily blurry. Research objective. To propose models and methods for analyzing risks and opportunities when norms are defined by general type fuzzy numbers (GTFN). Research methodology. When the efficiency factor and its norm are defined by GTFN, risk and opportunity assessments can be obtained using alpha cuts of GTFN and subsequent weighting according to the rule of arithmetic means. In certain cases, there are analytical expressions for risk and chance assessments. Practical application of the results. Expressions have been derived for cases where efficiency factors and norms are represented by scalars, intervals, triangular numbers, and GTFN. Corresponding risk functions and chance functions have been constructed. The proposed models and methods have been tested in assessing risks and opportunities for an industry economic system, with evaluation of boundary levels of industry indexes based on risk criteria. Originality and significance. The research is original and applies methods from fuzzy set theory and soft computing. A technology for analyzing risks and opportunities in economic systems has been proposed.