Carbon emission measurement method of regional power system based on LSTM-Attention model

Abstract

With the acceleration of the green and low-carbon transformation of the power system, it is very important to calculate and analyze the carbon emissions of the urban power systems. In order to effectively grasp the carbon emission distribution of power systems and reduce the carbon emission of power system, this paper proposes a systematic carbon emission measurement method for regional power systems. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of driving factors for regional power system carbon emissions is constructed, and the direction and measures of low-carbon transformation and green collaborative development of regional power systems are proposed. Secondly, energy consumption scenarios under different constraints are established to support the collaborative control path of CO2. It provides key data and a theoretical basis for the low-carbon development of the power industry. Finally, through the analysis of the arithmetic example and the combination of the three scenarios, it is concluded that under the 2020–2030 Tianjin baseline scenario, the Tianjin power sector cannot reach the peak before 2030, and under the low carbon scenario and the ultra-low carbon scenario, the total carbon emissions of the power sector are expected to peak in 2024, with a peak range of 55.83–55.9 million tons, which is only a slight increase of 210,000–280,000 tons compared to 2020 in emissions, showing the potential for effective carbon emission control. The validity of the methodology proposed in this paper is verified, and the effective path for future carbon emission reduction in electric power is analyzed, providing empirical support and strategic recommendations for the green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power system.