Koniec zimnej wojny, transformacja Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej a moc eksplanacyjna i prognostyczna teorii stosunków międzynarodowych

Abstract

The aim of the article is to show the explanatory and prognostic power of theories of international relations (neorealism, neo-liberal institutionalism and social constructivism) in the situation of visible problems with predicting the end of the Cold War and explaining the democratization process in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and other parts of the world. In the face of significant changes that have influenced the formation of a new post-Cold War international order, it is necessary to consider the importance of the theory in adopting appropriate research strategies so that on the one hand, it is possible to predict the course of events with some degree of probability and on the other, to explain their essence and importance. The end of the Cold War and the process of transforming the countries of Central and Eastern Europe thus pose a general and extremely important question about the possibility of developing a scientific approach to the analysis of international relations, which goes beyond only short-term observation of current events. The article analyzes the most important theoretical approaches in the context of adopting such a research strategy, thanks to which one could depart from the dominance of extreme, mutually exclusive positions. The great debates that have been held so far have shown that wealth in science is not a one-sided approach, even if at some point or time we are dealing with the supremacy of a particular theory or a methodological approach. The fiasco of the science of international relations in predicting the end of the Cold War has shown the necessity of undertaking such activities whose task would be to combine rather than exclude. The end of the Cold War and the transformation process of Central and Eastern Europe are therefore treated as case studies that help in testing the theory of international relations as adequate instruments for analyzing the changing international situation.