The 2022 escalation of the military and political situation around Taiwan: causes and prospects for further evolution

Abstract

New escalation of the Taiwan issue is a complex process, shaped by long-term trends in both the island’s internal politics and in the Sino-U.S. relations after 2017. The internal trends in Taiwan are making the very possibility of “peaceful reunification” with mainland China highly questionable for the foreseeable future. Each new electoral cycle in Taiwan was associated with a slide of the local politics towards separatism. Concurrently, the bipartisan anti-China consensus in the U.S. politics has resulted in the changing paradigm of the U.S. cooperation with Taipei and in dramatically intensified U.S.-Taiwan military and political cooperation. China, on the one hand, and Taiwan and the United States, on the other, are finding themselves in an escalation spiral, intensifying their military activities and toughening rhetoric. Each side attempts to reinforce its red lines, which, in turn, is seen as evidence of aggressive plans by its opponents. All sides are engaged in practical preparation for a potential military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. A devastating local war is quite probable within the next several years. 台湾2022年军事政治局势的恶化：原因和前景 台湾问题的新升级是一个复杂的过程。 这个过程受到2017年后台湾内政治和中美关系长期趋势的影响。 在可预见的未来，台湾与大陆和平统一的可能性非常值得怀疑。 台湾每一个新的选举周期逐渐走向分裂。 与此同时，美国政坛的两党反华共识导致美台合作范式发生变化，美台军事政治合作急剧加强。 中国 ， 台湾和美国发现自己处于升级螺旋中，他们加强了军事活动并加强了修辞。 每一方都试图加强其红线，而这反过来又被对手视为侵略性计划的证据。 各方都在为台海可能发生的军事冲突做实际准备。 未来几年很可能发生一场毁灭性的局部战争.