Development of a Risk Framework for Forecasting Earthquake Losses in Port Systems

Abstract

Ports play a critical role in transportation infrastructure but are vulnerable to seismic hazards. Downtime and reduced throughput from seismic damage in ports results in significant business interruption losses for port stakeholders. Managing risks from systemwide disruptions resulting from earthquake damage has been studied as a central element of a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) program. Presented are the concepts and methods developed for the seismic risk management of a portwide system of berths. The framework used to calculate port losses is discussed, particularly the use of spatially correlated ground motion intensity measures that estimate damage to pile-supported wharves and container cranes, the repair costs and downtimes subsequently determined via repair models for both types of structures, and the impact on cargo handling operations calculated via logistical models of the port system. Results, expressed in the form of loss exceedance curves, are calculated.