Analysis of the Escalation of Intercountry Trade Wars and the Computer Capabilities of Situation Centers to Assess their Consequences

Abstract

The study is devoted to the analysis of intercountry trade wars, assessment of the consequences of open confrontation between China and the United States, consideration of digital programmatic and managerial mechanisms for predicting and preventing such negative phenomena. The international economic system has undergone serious shocks associated with the intercountry trade war between the United States and China, with an active phase in 2017-2019, as well as complications caused by the epidemiological situation, starting in 2020. The United States, in turn, realizing that the leadership in world trade is smoothly transferring to China, took decisive measures, unleashing an intercountry trade war that affected most of the developed countries, including the longtime trade partners of the United States. The confrontation of these leading shit not only has a detrimental effect on the economies of their trading partners, but also directly affects global socio-economic processes and becomes especially noticeable if it is between superpowers, which account for 40% of all trade revenues. Noting this situation, it should be said that there are no universal and generally accepted software solutions for assessing, analyzing and preventing such negative economic phenomena in an explicit form. One of the Russian tools that could take over the functions of calculating the consequences of intercountry trade wars is the Situation Center. Such a role would be a logical continuation of the main vector of Russia's development in the field of public administration, since a complex system of distributed situational centers has already been launched, which can effectively carry out the functions of collecting and analyzing volumetric clusters of information at the world and national levels. On the basis of such data, it will be possible to build promising software and analytical models of various levels and directions, incl. to assess and prevent escalation of trade wars.