Fractional SEIR model and data-driven predictions of COVID-19 dynamics of Omicron variant

Abstract

We study the dynamic evolution of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant via a fractional susceptible–exposed–infected–removed (SEIR) model. Preliminary data suggest that the symptoms of Omicron infection are not prominent and the transmission is, therefore, more concealed, which causes a relatively slow increase in the detected cases of the newly infected at the beginning of the pandemic. To characterize the specific dynamics, the Caputo–Hadamard fractional derivative is adopted to refine the classical SEIR model. Based on the reported data, we infer the fractional order and time-dependent parameters as well as unobserved dynamics of the fractional SEIR model via fractional physics-informed neural networks. Then, we make short-time predictions using the learned fractional SEIR model.