Validation of a Predictive Model for Survival and Growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on Chicken Skin for Extrapolation to a Previous History of Frozen Storage†

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's tertiary Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP) model for survival and growth of Salmonella enterica ser. Typhimurium definitive type 104 (DT104) on chicken skin stored for 0 to 8 h at 5 to 50°C was evaluated for its ability to predict survival and growth of the same organism on chicken skin after frozen storage for 6 days at −20°C. Experimental design and methods used to collect data for model development (dependent data) were the same as those used to collect data for survival and growth after frozen storage (independent data for extrapolation). This was done to provide a valid comparison of observed and predicted values. The model was classified as providing acceptable predictions of the test data when the proportion of residuals in an acceptable prediction zone (pAPZ) from −1 log (fail-safe) to 0.5 log (fail-dangerous) was ≥0.7. The pAPZ for dependent data, independent data for interpolation, and independent data for extrapolation to a new independent variable of previous frozen storage were all acceptable (pAPZ ≥ 0.7), with the exception of the pAPZ for dependent data at 50°C, where an unacceptable pAPZ of 0.625 was obtained. Although a majority of observed log counts were less than predicted log counts, indicating that frozen storage of chicken skin for 6 days at −20°C had injured some Salmonella Typhimurium DT104, the injury was not large enough to cause the tertiary PMP model to provide unacceptable predictions. Thus, it was concluded that the tertiary PMP model provided valid predictions of survival and growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on chicken skin that had a previous history of frozen storage for 6 days at −20°C. Additional research is needed to determine how broadly the model can be applied to other conditions of previous frozen storage.