Use of Epidemiologic and Food Survey Data To Estimate a Purposefully Conservative Dose-Response Relationship for Listeria monocytogenes Levels and Incidence of Listeriosis†

Abstract

The development of effective quantitative microbial risk-assessment models for foodborne pathogens depends on the availability of data on the consumers' exposure to a biological agent and the dose-response relationship that relates levels of the biological agent ingested with frequency of infection or disease. Information on the latter has historically been acquired from human volunteer feeding studies. However, such studies are not feasible for pathogens that either have a significant risk of being life threatening or for which morbidity is primarily associated with high-risk populations (i.e., immunocompromised persons). For these pathogens, it is proposed that purposefully conservative dose-response relationships can be estimated on the basis of combining available epidemiologic data with food-survey data for a ready-to-eat product. As an example, data on the incidence of listeriosis in Germany were combined with data on the levels of Listeria monocytogenes in smoked fish to generate a dose-response curve for this foodborne pathogen.