Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: How the Maritime Industry can Leverage Developments in Autonomy from other Domains

Abstract

Autonomous maritime vessels have gained a considerable amount of attention in recent years due to their promise of reduced crew costs, increased safety and increased flexibility. This paper explores how the maritime industry can leverage the developments in autonomy and other systems to contribute to the continued drive towards autonomous maritime systems. First, several key technological areas associated with autonomous maritime systems are identified; including navigation and control systems, data transmission and electrical energy propulsion. These technical areas are then compared with other autonomous systems including autonomous aircraft, automobiles and spacecraft to find overlaps and similarities. A set of representative patents are determined for each technological area across each of the different autonomous systems and is then used to estimate a technological improvement rate for each technology-system pair. These technological improvement rates are implemented in a Monte-Carlo Markov Chain model to explore the effects of the timing of the adoption of autonomous systems in the maritime shipping industry. The model indicates a technological feasibility date of maritime autonomous systems beginning in 2028 when leveraging autonomous developments from other domains.