Climate change impacts on habitat suitability of Cinnamomum travancoricum (Lauraceae), a critically endangered endemic vascular plant in the Western Ghats, India

Abstract

Abstract The habitat of Cinnamomum travancoricum, a critically endangered endemic vascular plant that thrives at high altitudes (1,500–3,500 m asl) and in moist environments (600–850 hPa) in Western Ghats (WG), is shrinking due to climate change (CC), increase in herbivore populations, urbanization, and over-exploitation of C. travancoricum. Cinnamomum travancoricum’s current habitat and predictive range shift were modeled using MaxEnt for 2030, 2050, and 2070 CE under two emission scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The 19 WorldClim bioclimatic variables, including slope, aspect, elevation data, and 16 spatially dispersed-species-occurrence points, were used to predict the potential distribution. Jackknife test identified ‘isothermality’, ‘mean diurnal range’, and ‘precipitation of the driest month’ as the most impactful variables for modeling the habitat and range shift. This MaxEnt model was accurate with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.995. This ecological model predicted a substantial range contraction in suitable habitats, with ‘highly suitable’ and ‘moderately suitable’ habitats shrinking by 100% in RCP 8.5, confirming that C. travancoricum is highly vulnerable to the effects of CC, making it one key species for conservation in WG. The present study suggests the restoration of existing protected areas, creation of specialized reserves, habitat connectivity, and further education towards local communities as the key adaptation strategies for conservation.