Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization

Author:

Korotayev Andrey123ORCID,Zhdanov Andrew45ORCID,Krivenko Gleb6ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Doctor & professor of Historical Sciences, HSE University https://dx.doi.org/68192 Moscow Russia

2. Leading researcher & director, Center for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University https://dx.doi.org/68192 Moscow Russia

3. Chief research professor, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Russia

4. Trainee researcher, Center for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University https://dx.doi.org/68192 Moscow Russia

5. Ph.D. student, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Moscow Russia

6. 3rd year bachelor student in the educational program “World Economy”, HSE University https://dx.doi.org/68192 Moscow Russia

Abstract

Abstract This analysis finds that the impact of elections on risks of armed insurrections is not statistically significant, whereas unarmed uprisings/nonviolent revolutions are more likely to occur in the election year. It is also shown that the influence of elections on unarmed revolutionary destabilization had tended to grow with time. The election year became a significant factor of nonviolent revolutionary destabilization only after the end of the Cold War, and the impact of elections on the probability of unarmed revolutions has become particularly strong in this century (when elections in the given year increase the probability of an unarmed uprising more than three times). At the same time, holding elections primarily increases the risks of revolutionary destabilization in intermediate regimes (anocracies). But even among anocracies, open anocracies/partial democracies stand out, as here elections increase the probability of unarmed uprisings in an especially dramatic way.

Funder

HSE Fundamental Research Program

Publisher

Brill

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