Abstract
ObjectiveTo review and summarise the current evidence on the uptake of combustible cigarette smoking following e-cigarette use in non-smokers—including never-smokers, people not currently smoking and past smokers—through an umbrella review, systematic review and meta-analysis.DesignUmbrella review, systematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesPubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, PsychINFO (Ovid), Medline (Ovid) and Wiley Cochrane Library up to April 2020.ResultsOf 6225 results, 25 studies of non-smokers—never, not current and former smokers—with a baseline measure of e-cigarette use and an outcome measure of combustible smoking uptake were included. All 25 studies found increased risk of smoking uptake with e-cigarette exposure, although magnitude varied substantially. Using a random-effects model, comparing e-cigarette users versus non-e-cigarette users, among never-smokers at baseline the OR for smoking initiation was 3.19 (95% CI 2.44 to 4.16, I2 85.7%) and among non-smokers at baseline the OR for current smoking was 3.14 (95% CI 1.93 to 5.11, I2 91.0%). Among former smokers, smoking relapse was higher in e-cigarette users versus non-users (OR=2.40, 95% CI 1.50 to 3.83, I2 12.3%).ConclusionsAcross multiple settings, non-smokers who use e-cigarettes are consistently more likely than those avoiding e-cigarettes to initiate combustible cigarette smoking and become current smokers. The magnitude of this risk varied, with an average of around three times the odds. Former smokers using e-cigarettes have over twice the odds of relapse as non-e-cigarettes users. This study is the first to our knowledge to review and pool data on the latter topic.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42020168596.
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia
Department of Health, Australian Government
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