The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Colombia: impact of economic development on greenhouse gas emissions and ecological footprint

Abstract

Climate change has become a major concern for developing countries given the risk that it posses on energy and food independence, and on general productivity. Despite having an energy system with low carbon intensity when compared to other Latin American countries, Colombia is already facing climate change impacts and requires urgent efforts to mitigate them. As a developing country, the challenge is bigger as policies for economic growth should be in line with the global commitment of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With the aim of contributing to the design of climate policies, this study assesses the impact of economic development on the environment by examining the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Colombia. Statistically validated and stable autoregressive distributed lag models are estimated for three different environmental indicators: carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions, and ecological footprint. Moreover, the effects of other variables such as urbanization, foreign direct investment, value added of agricultural and industrial sectors, and energy use are analyzed with dynamic simulations. Empirical evidence supports a long-run equilibrium relationship among investigated variables and the existence of an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and methane emissions, and GDP and ecological footprint. Shifting to renewable energy sources and leveraging the use of cleaner technologies in agricultural and industrial sectors are found to be key for economic growth without harming the environment.