Understanding the Compound Risk Context of Goma City Through the Pressure and Release Model

Abstract

Goma, the capital of the North Kivu Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is a transborder and conflict-affected city that is also chronically vulnerable to volcanic eruptions. Using the extended version of the Pressure and Release model, this study examines Goma’s progressive vulnerability over the course of three volcanic disasters—the eruptions of Mount Nyiragongo in 1977, 2002, and 2021. We find that the rich natural resources and weak governance are the root causes of Goma’s chronic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions. In the first phase (1977–2002), an influx of ethnic groups seeking land as well as conflicts between them and natives over the land and natural resources can be regarded as dynamic pressure, generating unsafe conditions. In the second phase (2002–2021), the conflict added a global dimension, with the influx of global businesses and humanitarian organizations increasing the population pressure. It caused a gentrification process, in which the urban poor were pushed out to the marginal area of the city, which resulted in significant damage from the 2021 eruption. We find that globalization produces two opposing forces in the increased vulnerability; it accelerated economic prosperity in the region, on the one hand, but also caused a rapid population increase and increased progression, on the other.