Economic policy uncertainty, national saving rate and its heterogeneity analysis: Based on big data analysis

Abstract

Under the dual effect of rapid changes in the international political and economic situation and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, how to wisely design domestic macroeconomic policies to guide residents to rationally allocate the ratio of savings to consumption and stimulate the orderly growth of the economy from the demand dimension has become a realistic problem that countries urgently need to solve. In this paper, based on big data technology, we obtain dynamic panel data of 16 major economies from 1998 to 2019. By using the economic policy uncertainty index measured by Baker.S (2016) as the core explanatory variables, we construct a two-way fixed-effects model and a systematic GMM model to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on national saving rate in depth. The empirical study finds that there is a significant positive relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the growth rate of national saving rate. In addition, there exists significant heterogeneity across countries with different income levels.