Effectiveness of a health technician-delivered brief intervention for alcohol: a Bayesian reanalysis of a clinical trial

Author:

Barticevic Nicolas A.,Poblete FernandoORCID,Bradshaw Laura,Bendtsen Marcus

Abstract

Abstract Objective To reanalyze a clinical trial on the effectiveness of a Brief Intervention (BI) delivered by non-professionals to reduce risky alcohol drinking. Our previous null-hypothesis test of the effects of the BI yielded a ‘non-significant’ p-value, yet remained uninformative. Here we use the Bayesian paradigm which allows for expressing the probability of different effect sizes to better inform public policy decisions. Results The posterior probability of the odds of risky drinking at follow-up favored a marked effect of the BI, with 96% of the probability mass being less than OR = 1, and 84% being less than OR = 0.8. Our findings show that there is a high probability that the BI delivered by health technicians lowered risky alcohol use. The posterior distributions of the BI’s effects are presented to help contextualize the evidence for policy making in Chile.

Funder

Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Medicine

Reference12 articles.

1. Ministerio de Salud Chile. Estudio de carga de enfermedad y carga atribuible. 2008. https://medicina.uc.cl/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Informe_final_estudio_carga_2007.pdf. Accessed 25 April 2022.

2. Chilean Ministry of Health. Intervenciones breves para reducir el consumo de alcohol de riesgo, guía técnica para la atención primaria. [Brief interventions to reduce risk of alcohol consumption, technical guide for primary care]. 2011. https://mfr.osf.io/render?url=https://osf.io/b5gry/?direct%26mode=render%26action=download%26mode=render. Accessed 25 April 2022.

3. Kaner EF, Beyer FR, Muirhead C, Campbell F, Pienaar ED, Bertholet N, et al. Effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions in primary care populations. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2018;24:1680.

4. Barticevic NA, Poblete F, Zuzulich SM, Rodriguez V, Quevedo D, Sena BF, et al. A health technician-delivered brief intervention linked to AUDIT for reduction of alcohol use in Chilean primary care: a randomized controlled trial. Addict Sci Clin Pract. 2021;16:39.

5. Nuzzo R. Scientific method: statistical errors. Nature. 2014;506:150–2.

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