Author:
Tang Biao,Zhang Xue,Li Qian,Bragazzi Nicola Luigi,Golemi-Kotra Dasantila,Wu Jianhong
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Mass immunization is a potentially effective approach to finally control the local outbreak and global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it can also lead to undesirable outcomes if mass vaccination results in increased transmission of effective contacts and relaxation of other public health interventions due to the perceived immunity from the vaccine.
Methods
We designed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics that takes into consideration the epidemiological status, public health intervention status (quarantined/isolated), immunity status of the population, and strain variations. Comparing the control reproduction numbers and the final epidemic sizes (attack rate) in the cases with and without vaccination, we quantified some key factors determining when vaccination in the population is beneficial for preventing and controlling future outbreaks.
Results
Our analyses predicted that there is a critical (minimal) vaccine efficacy rate (or a critical quarantine rate) below which the control reproduction number with vaccination is higher than that without vaccination, and the final attack rate in the population is also higher with the vaccination. We also predicted the worst case scenario occurs when a high vaccine coverage rate is achieved for a vaccine with a lower efficacy rate and when the vaccines increase the transmission efficient contacts.
Conclusions
The analyses show that an immunization program with a vaccine efficacy rate below the predicted critical values will not be as effective as simply investing in the contact tracing/quarantine/isolation implementation. We reached similar conclusions by considering the final epidemic size (or attack rates). This research then highlights the importance of monitoring the impact on transmissibility and vaccine efficacy of emerging strains.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Cited by
7 articles.
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