Author:
Chen Ying,He Jiawen,Wang Meihua
Abstract
Abstract
Background
To forecast the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and mortality of post-neonatal population in East Asia including North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, Japan and China Mainland and Taiwan province.
Methods
The data on the incidence and mortality of HIV in post-neonatal population from East Asia were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD). The morbidity and mortality of post-neonatal HIV population from GBD 2000 to GBD 2013 were applied as the training set and the morbidity and mortality from GBD 2014 to GBD 2019 were used as the testing set. The hybrid of ARIMA and LSTM model was used to construct the model for assessing the morbidity and mortality in the countries and territories of East Asia, and predicting the morbidity and mortality in the next 5 years.
Results
In North Korea, the incidence and mortality of HIV showed a rapid increase during 2000–2010 and a gradual decrease during 2010–2019. The incidence of HIV was predicted to be increased and the mortality was decreased. In South Korea, the incidence was increased during 2000–2010 and decreased during 2010–2019, while the mortality showed fluctuant trend. As predicted, the incidence of HIV in South Korea might be increased and the mortality might be decreased during 2020–2025. In Mongolia, the incidence and mortality were slowly decreased during 2000–2005, increased during 2005–2015, and rapidly decreased till 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality of HIV showed a decreased trend. As for Japan, the incidence of HIV was rapidly increased till 2010 and then decreased till 2015. The predicted incidence of HIV in Japan was gradually increased. The mortality of HIV in Japan was fluctuant during 2000–2019 and was slowly decreased as predicted. The incidence and mortality of HIV in Taiwan during 2000–2019 was increased on the whole. The predicted incidence of HIV during was stationary and the mortality was decreased. In terms of China Mainland, the incidence and mortality of HIV was fluctuant during 2000–2019. The predicted incidence of HIV in China Mainland was stationary while the mortality was rapidly decreased.
Conclusion
On the whole, the incidence of HIV combined with other diseases in post-neonatal population was increased before 2010 and then decreased during 2010–2019 while the mortality of those patients was decreased in East Asia.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Reference57 articles.
1. Campbell EM, Jia H, Shankar A, Hanson D, Luo W, Masciotra S, et al. Detailed transmission network analysis of a large opiate-driven outbreak of HIV infection in the United States. J Infect Dis. 2017;216:1053–62.
2. HIV JUNPo. Availabe from: https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/documents/2021/2021_unaids_data.
3. Chi BH, Mbori-Ngacha D, Essajee S, Mofenson LM, Tsiouris F, Mahy M, et al. Accelerating progress towards the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a narrative review. J Int AIDS Soc. 2020;23:e25571.
4. Mayaphi SH, Martin DJ, Quinn TC, Stoltz AC. Vertical transmission of HIV among pregnant women who initially had false-negative rapid HIV tests in four south African antenatal clinics. Plos One. 2019;14:e0226391.
5. UNAIDS. Global HIV and AIDS Statistics. Available from: https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet. 2019 Fact Sheet 2019.
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献