Preoperative CT-based deep learning radiomics model to predict lymph node metastasis and patient prognosis in bladder cancer: a two-center study

Abstract

Abstract Objective To establish a model for predicting lymph node metastasis in bladder cancer (BCa) patients. Methods We retroactively enrolled 239 patients who underwent three-phase CT and resection for BCa in two centers (training set, n = 185; external test set, n = 54). We reviewed the clinical characteristics and CT features to identify significant predictors to construct a clinical model. We extracted the hand-crafted radiomics features and deep learning features of the lesions. We used the Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance algorithm and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression algorithm to screen features. We used nine classifiers to establish the radiomics machine learning signatures. To compensate for the uneven distribution of the data, we used the synthetic minority over-sampling technique to retrain each machine-learning classifier. We constructed the combined model using the top-performing radiomics signature and clinical model, and finally presented as a nomogram. We evaluated the combined model’s performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic, accuracy, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. We used the Kaplan–Meier survival curve to analyze the prognosis of BCa patients. Results The combined model incorporating radiomics signature and clinical model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.834 (95% CI: 0.659–1.000) for the external test set. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis demonstrated exceptional calibration and promising clinical use. The combined model showed good risk stratification performance for progression-free survival. Conclusion The proposed CT-based combined model is effective and reliable for predicting lymph node status of BCa patients preoperatively. Critical relevance statement Bladder cancer is a type of urogenital cancer that has a high morbidity and mortality rate. Lymph node metastasis is an independent risk factor for death in bladder cancer patients. This study aimed to investigate the performance of a deep learning radiomics model for preoperatively predicting lymph node metastasis in bladder cancer patients. Key points • Conventional imaging is not sufficiently accurate to determine lymph node status. • Deep learning radiomics model accurately predicted bladder cancer lymph node metastasis. • The proposed method showed satisfactory patient risk stratification for progression-free survival. Graphical Abstract